Following Scooter Libby’s conviction on Tuesday, there’s been growing speculation that Vice President Cheney might be next in line to be hooded and left dangling from the hangman’s noose. He was not indicted and did not testify, but a President with a 33% approval rating cannot afford to keep throwing squid to his albatross indefinitely. There are too many albatross, and not enough squid.
Under normal circumstances, it would be unlikely that the man often described as the most influential VP in history would pack his bags and board a Greyhound bus back to Wyoming, either willingly or unwillingly. The puppet seldom fires the puppeteer, and the puppeteer seldom cuts the strings voluntarily.
But these are not normal times. The 2008 Presidential election will be the first since 1928 in which neither the sitting President nor the sitting VP will be running.
That could change. The VP could plausibly resign for “health reasons” given that his medical problems are well documented, thereby allowing the President to nominate a replacement. In that case, the logical nominee would be Condoleeza Rice, since she’s next in line among Republicans in the order of succession, and this President likes to keep his friends nearby. However, Condi’s confirmation hearings would not be gentle and would give Democrats an opportunity to ask questions that she would prefer not to answer.
On the other hand, it would be hard for a closely divided Senate to reject Rudy Giuliani. He’s popular, relatively moderate and doesn’t have to defend any position on the 2002 Iraq resolution. As of this moment, he holds a substantial lead over Sen. John McCain and no other Republican candidate is even remotely close. If confirmed, Rudy would have the nomination in his back pocket and, as the incumbent VP, he would have a strong advantage over the Democratic challenger. By replacing Cheney with Giuliani, The Decider would not only rid himself of an albatross, but get to hand-pick his own successor at the same time.
Of course, this would effectively take McCain out of the race, which could be awkward for the President since McCain is one of the few senators still supporting his Iraq policy, but there’s an obvious solution. If you think you’re about to read the words “Giuliani/McCain in 2008,” you’re right.
There’s one other scenario that’s all but impossible but still fun to contemplate. George W. Bush could nominate George H.W. Bush to replace Cheney, then Dad could send Junior to his room. George H.W. Bush may have been a one-term President, but he knew the shortest route out of Iraq.
By the way, the reply from the Magic 8-ball was “cannot predict now.”
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