Wednesday 19 September 2007

The 22 Most Corrupt Members of Congress

This is a list of the 22 most corrupt members of Congress compiled by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (CREW).

A few observations. Note that over 80% are Republicans, including five in California (one being a presidential candidate) and three in both New Mexico and Alaska. These three states have half of the the most corrupt members of Congress. Well done, voters!)


The 22 Most Corrupt Members of Congress are:

Sen. Pete V. Domenici (R-NM)
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY)
Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK)
Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK)
Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA)
Rep. John T. Doolittle (R-CA)
Rep. Tom Feeney (R-FL)
Rep. Doc Hastings (R-WA)
Rep. Duncan Hunter (R-CA)
Rep. William J. Jefferson (D-LA)
Rep. Jerry Lewis (R-CA)
Rep. Gary G. Miller (R-CA)
Rep. Alan B. Mollohan (D-WV)
Rep. Timothy F. Murphy (R-PA)
Rep. John P. Murtha (D-PA)
Rep. Steve Pearce (R-NM)
Rep. Rick Renzi (R-AZ)
Rep. Harold Rogers (R-KY)
Rep. David Scott (D-GA)
Rep. Jerry Weller (R-IL)
Rep. Heather A. Wilson (R-NM)
Rep. Don Young (R-AK)

Dishonorable Mention:

Sen. Larry E. Craig (R-ID)
Sen. David Vitter (R-LA)

(Link: http://www.citizensforethics.org/)

Wednesday 12 September 2007

New polls indicate that Thompson has either tied Giuliani or he hasn’t, or maybe he’s ahead

In the week since Sen. Fred Thompson announced his presidential candidacy on the “Tonight Show,” he has caught up with former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani, according to a CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll. The poll shows Giuliani and Thompson in a statistical tie with Giuliani holding on to a 27% to 26% lead by his fingernails.

Thompson’s quick success has been remarkable, as his campaign has already had its share of problems including fundraising difficulties and staff defections. For a time, it was unclear whether Thompson would enter the race at all. Yet after only a few days, he is well positioned atop a crowded field of Republican candidates.

Or is he?

A USA Today/Gallup poll seems to describe a completely different race, one in which Thompson’s entrance has had little impact. According to the Gallup Poll, Giuliani still holds a 12-point lead, and the percentage of voters favoring Thompson has not changed significantly since his “Tonight Show” appearance.

How can two major polling organizations reach such different conclusions, particularly when both polls were conducted at the same time?

In truth, there may be no discrepancy at all. The Gallop poll has a margin of error of +/-5%. The CNN poll did not specify its margin of error; assume that it is also +/-5%. Suppose CNN underestimated Giuliani’s support and overestimated Thompson’s support. Give another 5% to Giuliani—within the margin of error—and take 5% from Thompson. The results are now almost identical to the Gallup poll’s, and they are consistent with other polls, such as a CBS/New York Times poll that also estimated Thompson’s support at 22%, five points behind Giuliani.

These are not the only recent polls that have reached incongruous conclusions.

A Brown University survey conducted at the same time as the CNN and Gallup polls found Sen. Hillary Clinton leading her closest competitor, Sen. Barack Obama, by 19%. However, the analysis failed to note that Clinton, supported by 35% of Rhode Island voters, is tied with “don’t know/no opinion.” That is a very high percentage of undecided voters. By comparison, only 8% of the people who responded to the CNN and Gallup polls had no opinion. With that many votes up for grabs, Clinton could win Rhode Island’s primary in a landslide, or the race could be competitive. But how is it that so many Rhode Island voters have no opinion?

Finally, a Rasmussen Reports survey released last week concluded that Clinton is the most electable of the Democratic candidates, at least in the eyes of Democratic voters. However, if being electable is defined as being able to beat the other party’s candidate, a somewhat different picture emerges. According to the survey, Edwards wins every general election match-up, usually with a wider margin of victory than Clinton’s. Edwards beats Giuliani by 8%, Thompson by 14%, Sen. John McCain by 4%, and Governor Mitt Romney by 11%. By comparison, Clinton beats Thompson by 4%, McCain by 2%, and Romney by 11%, while losing to Giuliani by 4%. Obama also loses to Giuliani, and his margin of victory over Thompson is only 4%. Therefore, by this standard, Edwards may actually be the most electable Democrat.

Rasmussen Reports just released its daily presidential tracking poll. It shows Giuliani’s support falling to 20% and gives Thompson an 8-point lead. Naturally, the mayor is considered the more electable candidate. Each new day brings a fresh perspective.

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